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Expect Interest Rates To Keep Going Up

  • Anup Ved
  • Apr 27, 2016
  • 1 min read

Today was the FOMC and the tone of the FEDs was dovish as usual. But if you observe the charts of TNX and TYX which is the 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury Index you will notice that it is reversing. Attached are the weekly charts for TNX and TYX. Notice the last weeks candle. When the candle is so big and hollow the following weeks candles are always higher. Also the momentum on the weekly chart is turning positive. The 20 and 8 MA lines are curling up. All this suggests a higher interest rates in the coming weeks. Also notice the weekly TLT chart. It needs to drop more which makes sense as Interest rates rise, yields increases and bond prices drop. Higher interest rates are also not good for Utilities. Check out the attached XLU weekly chart. It needs to go much lower.

Application Idea: You can get June $47 puts for XLU going for 73cents. This way you will have 52 days for it to go down. My target for XLU is around $45 at which our puts will be worth about 1.78 which is a profit of more than 100%


 
 
 

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